Oil production needs to fall considerably by 2050 to limit global warming, yet there are many justifications for countries continuing to produce oil until the last barrel. We see that attempting to manage a global phase out without full consideration for the equity concerns of country producers poses risks for a globally just transition. Leaving the transition to market dynamics along carries even greater risks. We therefore call for a better understanding and more consideration for equity, to improve decision-making regarding a global phase out.

This new synthesis article, authored by Felipe Sanchez (Research Associate, Stockholm Environment Institute) and Linus Linde (Power System Analyst), explores these themes and sets out criteria for determining the sequencing of countries phasing out oil extraction and the just transition implications.